The Biden administration says it remains “hopeful” about Sweden’s application to join the NATO security alliance, despite tepid words from NATO’s main holdout, Turkey.

But the White House declined to say whether that could happen before a NATO summit scheduled for next month.

With less than a month before alliance members meet July 11 in Lithuania’s capital, Vilnius, press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said Wednesday that the White House was optimistic.

“We are still hopeful that this will get done,” she said, “I don’t have a timeline, certainly. The sooner, the better, as I said, without delay. And so, we’ll continue to be very clear. We’ll continue to communicate that with Turkey.”

Sweden needs unanimous support from all 31 NATO members before it can join. So far, all but Hungary and Turkey have given it, diminishing hopes that Sweden can join by the summit.

Ankara has accused Stockholm of not doing enough to crack down on its branch of a political party that Turkey’s government sees as extremists. And Hungary’s leader objects to Sweden’s criticism of his record on democracy and the rule of law.

Sweden and Finland applied jointly for NATO membership last May, with both Nordic nations citing overwhelming popular support for the idea amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Finland’s membership was finalized in April.

On Wednesday, newly reelected Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan told reporters, “The expectations of Sweden do not mean that we will comply with these expectations. In order for us to comply with these expectations, first of all, Sweden must do its part.”

Meanwhile, NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg said Wednesday that his staff had reported that a meeting between Sweden and Turkey “took place in a constructive atmosphere.”

“Some progress has been made,” he said.

F-16 leverage

Stoltenberg cited the recent extradition from Sweden of suspects related to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, known as the PKK.

“This is good for the fight against terrorism, but also good for Sweden’s efforts to fight organized crime in Sweden, because these groups are very often linked,” he said Wednesday in Brussels.

But Erdogan on Wednesday took a harder line, telling journalists, “What we told [Stoltenberg] was this: ‘If you expect us to respond to Sweden’s expectations, first of all, Sweden must erase what this terrorist organization has done.’ While we were expressing these to Stoltenberg at that particular time, unfortunately, terrorists were demonstrating again in the streets in Sweden.”

Michael Kimmage, a professor at Catholic University and a senior nonresident fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told VOA that “there are a few bona fide issues, and then there’s also a little bit of gamesmanship that Ankara is engaging in.”

One thing he pointed to — which Erdogan did not mention Wednesday when speaking to journalists — is that Turkey is seeking to buy 40 American F-16 fighter jets and modernization kits, a purchase that needs congressional approval.

Biden, who called Erdogan in May, has framed the deal for the jets as Washington’s leverage for fast-tracking Turkey’s decision on Sweden.

“He still wants to work on something on the F-16s,” Biden said late last month. “I told him we wanted a deal with Sweden, so let’s get that done.”

The Orban obstacle

Washington appears to be taking a harder line with the other holdout, Hungary. Prime Minister Viktor Orban has bristled under Western criticism — backed up by prominent rights watchdogs — accusing his administration of violating civil liberties, media freedom, the rule of law and democratic governance.

This week, Senator James Risch, the top Republican on the Foreign Relations Committee, moved unilaterally to block a $735 million U.S. arms sale to Hungary.

“For some time now, I have directly expressed my concerns to the Hungarian government regarding its refusal to move forward a vote for Sweden to join NATO,” he told U.S. media. “The fact that it is now June and still not done, I decided that the sale of new U.S. military equipment to Hungary will be on hold.”

Analysts say Orban — who has tightened his grip on power — can be unpredictable.

“It is fair to say that he is the loose cannon within NATO and EU,” Jan C. Behrends, a history professor at European University Viadrina in Frankfurt, Germany, said during a discussion with analysts convened by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Europe program.

NATO members agree to come to each other’s defense in the event of an attack. Hungary, a landlocked nation that shares a border with Ukraine, has yet to meet a 2014 pledge to spend at least 2% of its GDP on defense.

And by dragging his feet on letting in two larger, wealthier nations, analysts argue Orban is acting against his own interests.

“Delaying the NATO accession of Finland and further blocking that of Sweden similarly have no justifiable reason and are harmful from a security perspective,” said Zsuzsanna Vegh of the European Council on Foreign Relations.

“What’s more, none of these steps can even be explained by the Hungarian national interest [that] Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s Fidesz [Party] is so adamant to protect,” he said.

VOA’s Mehmet Toroglu contributed to this report.
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