Historical tensions between Turkey and Greece erupted again recently over disputed territory in the Aegean Sea. This latest dispute centers on uninhabited islands, which 21 years ago brought the countries to the brink of war. Although few are predicting a military confrontation this time, there are fears of diplomatic repercussions.

Tensions rose when Turkish and Greek warships faced off in the Aegean Sea over the islets, which Turkey calls Kardak and Greece Imia. Athens accused Turkish fighter jets of violating its airspace a record 138 times in one day. The islets are claimed by both Ankara and Athens.

Turkish political columnist Semih Idiz of the Al Monitor website says both sides have experience at containing tensions over the land.

“We’ve had many of these storms in tea cups. They can be very serious storms in the Aegean.  I am not trying to underestimate them or trying to approach it lightly and a mishap could lead to a situation that is undesirable. But generally I think the two sides, after a certain escalation, draw back in incidents like this. This has been the pattern between Turkey and Greece,” Idiz said.

High seas tension was widely seen as a thing of the past, with nearly two decades of rapprochement efforts; but a Greek court’s refusal last month to extradite eight Turkish soldiers wanted by Ankara for their alleged role in a failed July coup led the Turkish foreign minister, Mevlut Cavusoglu, to warn of severe consequences.

Broader implications

Analyst Sinan Ulgen, a visiting scholar of the Carnegie Institute in Brussels, says while any military confrontation is unlikely, there can still be repercussions.

“The problems in the Greek-Turkish bilateral relationship have the potential to undermine also the refugee deal which is of consequence to many European governments, including Germany. The other area where a deterioration of this relationship may have a negative impact is Cyprus,” Ulgen said.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel visited Ankara last week for talks. One items on her agenda was the assurance over the continuation of Turkey’s deal with the European Union to stem the flow of migrants. Analysts predict Ankara will not end the deal because of tensions with Athens, as it is one of the few sources of leverage it has over Brussels.

United Nations efforts to reunite the island of Cyprus, divided between Greek and Turkish Cypriot communities, could be hurt, warns columnist Idiz.

“The two sides in Cyprus have brought it up to a certain point. Now they need their big brothers to iron out differences and any tensions between Turkey and Greece would automatically have a negative effect on any progress being made on Cyprus, so there is that risk,” Idiz said.

Last month, U.N.-sponsored Cyprus reunification talks in Geneva ended in deadlock. U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres visited Istanbul Friday for two days of talks, including with Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yildirim; but with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan campaigning on a platform of nationalism ahead of an April referendum to broaden his powers, analysts warn a tough line toward Athens and over Cyprus is likely, at least until the vote.

Cyprus has been divided since Turkish forces invaded in 1974 in response to a short-lived coup by Greek Cypriot militants seeking union with Greece.
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