London — Germany’s plan to hold a snap election in February has raised uncertainties over the country’s military aid program for Ukraine, as the government has not yet approved its 2025 budget. Berlin is the second biggest donor of weapons and equipment to Kyiv, after the United States.

The political turmoil in Europe’s biggest economy comes as allies prepare for a second term for President-elect Donald Trump in the United States. Trump has repeatedly questioned U.S. support for Ukraine.

February vote

Germany’s main political parties agreed to hold the election on February 23, following the collapse of the ruling three-party coalition government earlier this month. Chancellor Olaf Scholz is due to introduce a confidence motion in parliament next month, which he is expected to lose, paving the way for a general election.

Scholz has said he will stand again as the Social Democrats’ candidate, although some in the party have questioned whether he is the best choice amid low approval ratings.

The chairman of the Social Democrats in the German parliament, Rolf Mützenich, insisted Tuesday that Scholz was the right candidate. 

“I am firmly convinced that Olaf Scholz has done this country good in the last three years under the most difficult conditions. He has done everything to ensure that the coalition stays together. We have not only experienced the attack by Russian troops on Ukraine, but we have also helped Ukraine. We have also created important economic stabilization effects in Germany,” Mützenich told reporters in Berlin.

Opposition poll lead

However, the main opposition Christian Democrats have a big lead in the polls. The party’s leader, Friedrich Merz, argued for a quicker election. 

“We are basically losing around a month for the election to the next German parliament and thus also for the formation of a government after the next election,” Merz told reporters Tuesday. “I just want to remind you that we do not have a federal budget for 2025. We are going into 2025 with this serious omission, with this heavy burden. And that is why it is completely unknown what will become of it,” he added.

Debt dispute

The current government — a coalition between the Social Democrats, the Green party and the Free Democrats — collapsed last week following disagreements over raising new debt to finance the 2025 budget, including the provision of military aid to Ukraine. A so-called debt brake in Germany’s constitution restricts the government’s ability to take on new loans. 

Berlin has given Kyiv around $11 billion in weapons and equipment since Russia’s February 2022 full-scale invasion. The outgoing government had planned to cut that aid to just over $4 billion next year.

“Broadly speaking, there was a consensus that supporting Ukraine remains a priority for Germany. The question was just where and how to get and raise the finances for that,” said Mattia Nelles, founder of the German-Ukraine Bureau, a political consultancy based in Düsseldorf, who said the February election was “bad timing for Ukraine, bad timing for Europe.” 

‘Leadership vacuum’

“It means Germany will be preoccupied with itself for a few months before we have a new government with a hopefully strong mandate — a coalition that could take literally until next summer, or in the worst case, even until autumn. So that is a leadership vacuum in Europe, and that’s bad news for everyone involved,” Nelles said.

The election is due to take place just weeks after the January 20 inauguration of Donald Trump as the next U.S. president.

“The worst case that many fear in Berlin and Kyiv [is] an incoming Trump administration taking power in January then slashing or ending the Ukraine aid, that will force the German government, the lame duck Scholz government with the current parliament, to increase the funding for Ukraine.”

“It’s important to note that there is still a majority in the old parliament, even before the new parliament is elected, to increase the aid, to take new debt and amend the constitution for that, to take new debt to support Ukraine … but it’s going to be difficult politically to implement that,” Nelles said. 

European security

Trump’s presidency could have wider implications for European security, including the deployment of U.S. forces and equipment, such as long-range missile systems, says analyst Marina Miron, a defense analyst at Kings College, London.

“What else might be reversed is the placement of Tomahawk [U.S. missiles] in Germany. So, we have quite a situation where, let’s say, Trump might pursue an anti-globalist agenda and push NATO countries to invest more of their GDP into defense,” Miron told VOA.

Russian assets

Europe froze around $200 billion in Russian assets following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. The interest is being used to help fund weapons for Kyiv, while the G7 group of rich nations has implemented a loan plan for Ukraine using the Russian assets as collateral. 

At a time of fiscal pressures in Europe, some argue it’s time to seize the assets entirely and give them to Ukraine.

“Europe is sitting on a war chest of 200 billion U.S. dollars of frozen Russian assets,” said analyst Mattia Nelles. “And I think the incoming Trump administration will push the Europeans to go further. And that’s welcome news from the Ukrainian side — to not just give loans and credit based on frozen Russian assets, but to move to confiscate the assets themselves. And that’s certainly something many in Germany also support,” he added.

Economic pressures

Chancellor Scholz oversaw German efforts to end reliance on cheap Russian energy.  However, analysts say that has driven inflation and undermined confidence in Europe’s biggest economy.

Scholz also was seen as reluctant to make bolder decisions on arming Ukraine, including the supply of long-range Taurus missiles, something Kyiv has repeatedly requested.

Ukraine may be hoping that a change in leadership in Berlin could unblock more military aid, said Nelles. “We are looking at a new, potentially stronger government, which, if it’s led by [Christian Democrat leader] Friedrich Merz, might be taking some of the bolder decisions which Scholz had hesitated to take, including the delivery of Taurus. But everyone hoping for that, I would urge caution,” he said.

Germany’s economic constraints won’t disappear with new leadership, said analyst Marina Miron. 

“Let’s assume, for a moment, there is somebody who would drive this policy forward and who would have much more resolve than Scholz. The problem is the German budget. The problem is also that defense contractors in Europe are now affected, as other companies, by the disruption in the global supply chain,” she told VOA.

Germany is also struggling to overcome decades of underinvestment in its armed forces, something the next government will have to address, Miron added. 

“The dictates of German strategic culture just go against the grain of the current threat landscape, when it comes to bigger investment in defense,” she said.
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